Permutations | Battle for third heats up with just two assured of knockout place in the Limerick SFC

The penultimate round of the Limerick SFC begins tonight.

The fourth round of the Limerick Senior Football Championship kicks off on Thursday evening with the clash of Fr Caseys and Galbally in Mick Neville Park.

Caseys are one of two teams assured of their place in the final six, alongside Newcastle West who they meet in the final round.

In group two, Adare and St Kierans lead the way with 100% records but they can be caught if results elsewhere go against them.

With two rounds of games to play, we look at the permutations from both groups below.

Group One

Fr Caseys: With three wins from three, Caseys have guaranteed progression to the knockout stages. If they beat Newcastle West in the final round then they will top the group regardless of what happens this weekend.

Newcastle West: Similarly to Caseys, Newcastle West will qualify for the quarter-finals at the least. A win against the Abbeyfeale side in the final group game will ensure a semi-final berth even if they lose this weekend.

Claughaun: Currently in pole position for the final quarter-final spot, top of the table is a possibility but would need a number of results to go in their favour and a huge swing in points difference. If they beat NCW this weekend, a draw with Monaleen in the final round would guarantee a top three finish. Anything other than a win this weekend will ensure they need to beat Monaleen in the final game should they overcome Oola this weekend.

Could have the scenario where Clauaghaun, Monaleen and Galbally all get to five points where scoring difference would decide third spot.

Monaleen: Qualification is in their own hands with two wins ensuring a quarter-final place. A win over Oola and a Claughaun loss to NCW would mean a draw would suffice in the final round as they would hold a head to head over Galbally should they get to five points.

Galbally: Out of their hands but not impossible, Galbally need a lot to go in their favour in the final two rounds. Two wins will get them to five points, but might not be enough if either Claughaun or Monaleen win their remaining games.

Oola: Need to win their final pair of games to have any chance. Also need a string of results to go their way. Two more losses and they will be in the relegation final. A lot will possibly come down to their final round meeting with Galbally.

Round Four Fixtures

Galbally v Fr. Casey’s (Thursday 6:30pm in Kilmallock)

Monaleen v Oola (Friday 6:30pm in Cappamore)

Newcastle West v Claughan (Saturday 6:30pm in Mick Neville Park)

Round Five Fixtures

Newcastle West v Fr Caseys

Claughaun v Monaleen

Galbally v Oola

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Group Two

St Kierans: Only need a draw from the final two games to ensure progress. Could even qualify with two losses, depending on results elsewhere. If they beat Adare in the final round they will top the group and qualify for the semi-final regardless of other results.

Adare: In the same boat as St Kierans. If they draw that game with Kierans, both will be through.

Kildimo Pallaskenry: Have their knockout hopes in their own hands. Have lost to the table toppers St Kierans and Adare but with Galtee Gaels and Ballysteen in the final pair of rounds, two wins will ensure they advance as the third team in the group.

Ballysteen: Two wins from their final pair of games will bring them to six, while also limiting KP to a maximum of four points. However, Galtee Gaels can also get to six points and if the duo are the only teams left on that number of points, Galtee Gaels will qualify as a result of their win in round two.

Galtee Gaels: Like Ballysteen where two wins would go a long way towards qualifying and eliminating KP. If Adare or St Kierans lose their final games, Ballysteen and Galtee Gaels win their final games it will come down to scoring difference with Kierans (+17), Adare (+13), Ballysteen (-1), Galtee Gaels (-13).

Ballylanders: Pole position for the drop, Ballylanders need at least one win to give them any chance of survival. If Galtee Gaels lose this weekend, then a win on the final day against the Gaels will be enough to save Bally. One win in their final game could see them into a three-way tie on two points where scoring differential will come into. Currently have the worst record in that department on -18.

Round Four Fixtures

Adare v Ballylanders (Friday 6:30pm in Feenagh)

Galtee Gaels v Kildimo-Pallaskenry (Saturday 6:30pm in Caherconlish)

Ballysteen v St. Kieran’s (Sunday 6:30pm in The Bog Garden)

Round Five Fixtures

Adare v St Kierans

Ballysteen v Kildimo Pallaskenry

Ballylanders v Galtee Gaels