Matchday Preview: Three Areas That Will Decide Ireland Vs Wales

EDDIE Jones’ England have often inflicted their severe physicality on Ireland to great effect. New Zealand happily halted Ireland’s power game in the World Cup quarter-final. France were more than able to out-muscle Andy Farrell’s men in November. It is obvious that Ireland have come unstuck when up against powerhouse packs in the last few years and have been found wanting for a successful Plan B.

It’s bold to say, but this Sunday Ireland might not need one.

Against Wales, Scotland and Italy in recent history there has been no such problem up front. Ireland will be tipped to come out with three wins in this season’s Six Nations and the first of the three should come on Sunday afternoon.

Power Play

Andy Farrell has gone with a powerful but dynamic forward pack who should complement eachother brilliantly. On paper at least, Ireland boast of the perfect mixture of ball-carriers and selfless breakdown specialists. There is game intelligence across the eight positions and a wealth of experience to boot.

The surprise selection of Josh Van der Flier was a talking-point in the build up to this fixture and the Leinster openside could quietly prove a key player in tomorrow’s match. Van der Flier made a combined 5 carries in his last two Ireland starts which was the lowest of any forward. His important contribution lies elsewhere.

Instead of bringing the abrasion of a CJ Stander, Cian Healy or James Ryan in the contact area, the 27 year-old will act as a catalyst for the Irish attack by committing himself to clearing as many rucks as humanly possible. Ireland will be able to enforce themselves on Wales, but naturally somebody is needed to secure possession first. The presense of Van der Flier and the similarly unrelenting Peter O’Mahony offers the likes of Tadhg Beirne and Rob Herring the opportunity to get their hands on the ball more than usual and make an impact across the gainline.

Wales were abysmal the last time these two sides met back in November. Ireland made yards far too easily and the visitor’s attack looked toothless at best. As a proud rugby nation they will forever be competitive and tenacious across 80 minutes but at the moment a lack of powerful ball-carriers and an unsettled backline seems to have slowed progress.

When at Scarlets, Wales’ head coach Wayne Pivac placed a significant emphasis on turning over the ball so that his side could instantly spread the ball wide and punish transitioning defences. In the 2017 PRO12 final versus Munster, the Welsh club side turned over the ball 13 times on their way to scoring six tries and earned a 46-22 victory in sensational style. So far Pivac has been unsuccessful in reproducing that kind of attacking efficiency for the national team, but the same principles have clearly been introduced to their methods.

Wales’ pack for Sunday are set up to target the breakdown and you can expect to find number seven Justin Tipuric sniffing for any half opportunity to steal Ireland’s ball on the deck. Taulupe Faletau, the chop-tackling Dan Lydiate and Ken Owens are equally street-wise operators around the ruck and it would be unsurprising to find them defending narrow and committing numbers to that area in hope of interrupting Ireland’s rhythm at source. In the last meeting between the pair, Wales pinched the ball back 13 times (compared to Ireland’s 7 turnovers) and any attacking improvement since then would surely see November’s 23 point spread on the scoreline close considerably.

𝐓𝐄𝐀𝐌 𝐍𝐄𝐖𝐒: Wales side to face @IrishRugby in our 2021 #GuinnessSixNations opener this Sunday ☘️ ⠀
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⏎ 𝘋𝘢𝘯 𝘓𝘺𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘺𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘶 𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘴 𝘎𝘺𝘮𝘳𝘶 𝘢𝘮 𝘺 𝘵𝘳𝘰 𝘤𝘺𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘧 𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘴 𝘛𝘢𝘤𝘩𝘸𝘦𝘥𝘥 2018. ⠀
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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 #HWFN pic.twitter.com/tdEONKsBQi

— Welsh Rugby Union 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 (@WelshRugbyUnion) February 5, 2021

Ireland will need to be very vigilant in securing stable possession. Andy Farrell’s side do not want to see Sunday remembered as the day Pivac’s Wales came alive. Support play needs to be constant and accurate from the full fifteen. Anything else would hand Wales the chance of generating momentum in the contest and scupper Ireland’s hopes of dominating up front.

Thankfully retaining possession is something Ireland teams are almost always reliable at and sending Welsh defenders onto the back foot makes life in that department a whole lot easier. Ideally, Cian Healy, Andrew Porter and James Ryan will have the chance to crash their considerable frames through Welsh defenders with tight carries close to the ruck. The Leinster trio have more than enough power to capture Wales’ full attention and that can afford the lethal CJ Stander and Tadhg Beirne the opportunity to take the ball ten yards further from the breakdown and use their feet and force to punish the resulting soft spots in the ruck-focused Welsh defence.

If I can make an unqualified prediction it is that one of Ireland’s tries will see CJ Stander punch his way over from a Conor Murray pass and another Ireland try will come from using Stander or Beirne as a decoy runner before unleashing the backline for a James Lowe try.

HEAVY BALL CARRIERS	CJ Stander	Cian Healy	Andrew Porter
SECONDARY BALL CARRIERS	James Ryan	Tadhg Beirne	Rob Herring
ENGINE	Peter O’Mahony	Josh Van der Flier	—

Lineout Accuracy

The confidence held by most pundits approaching this fixture stems from the presumption that Ireland won’t shoot themselves in the foot. It is presumed that the basics will be executed proficiently and set attacking platforms with minimal fuss. Poor discipline, sloppy missed tackles and handling errors may have made cameo appearances in Ireland’s worst performances under Andy Farrell but they are still far from defining characteristics at this stage and that will always leave a degree of assurance.

There were already obsessive standard-setters amongst the group and last month another by the name of Paul O’Connell was added to the mix. The lineout had become one such area of uncharacteristic inaccuracy and the 2009 Lions captain intends to iron out those issues as forwards coach as soon as possible. The picture that I painted above of Ireland’s destructive attack is after all, only possible from a successful lineout platform.

One way Ireland can lose this match is if frustration seeps in from miscued lineouts. The waste of possession that goes hand in hand with a faltering lineout is damaging enough. The subsequent psychological impact can be a whole lot more harmful.

The intangibles come into play – confidence, assurance, calm, concentration can all easily falter after a succession of set-piece mishaps. Instead of following their pre-planned processes, teams can be catapulted into the present moment, panicked and distracted.

If Paul O’Connell’s forward pack can be accurate throughout the match then Ireland have a brilliant chance of winning this one with a professional performance. Perhaps an improved launch-pad can allow Andy Farrell’s new-look Ireland to set alight like we’ve never seen before.

Substitute Swing

The intimidating selection of Irish forwards starting on the bench is destined to have an impact on proceedings. The bruising Kilcoyne, Kelleher, Furlong, Henderson and Connors will bring an incredible energy to the closing stages against Wayne Pivac’s side.

The power available to Ireland is unmatched by the Welsh and will surely swing the gainline success in Ireland’s favour. Depending on set-piece accuracy, it may or may not end up coming down to the final quarter for Ireland. If it does however, Andy Farrell is blessed with the outstanding talent available to him from the bench

There is some anxiety coming from Welsh media regarding how their scrum will cope in the second half. Wales’ substitute props Leon Brown and Rhordi Jones have a combined 28 caps for their country, compared to Kilcoyne and Furlong’s 83. As long as Ireland kick well and play the majority of the game in Wales’ half the dominance anticipated in the scrum and wider collision-area should see the game fall into the visitor’s hands.

Prediction: Ireland 23-12 Wales

Wales: Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, George North, Johnny Williams, Hallam Amos, Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones (c), Dan Lydiate, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau

Replacements: Elliot Dee, Rhodri Jones, Leon Brown, Will Rowlands, Josh Navidi, Gareth Davies, Callum Sheedy, Nick Tompkins

Ireland: Hugo Keenan, Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe, Jonathan Sexton (c), Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rob Herring, Andrew Porter, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, CJ Stander

Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Tadhg Furlong, Iain Henderson, Will Connors, Jamison Gibson-Park, Billy Burns, Jordan Larmour